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Euro Analysis 15.05.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrow upward range during the Asian session to see its rebound for the ninth session in 14 sessions from its lowest since May 30 of 2017 against the US dollar on the eve of economic developments and data expected Wednesday by the region's economies The euro and the US economy are the largest economy in the world.   

At 4:50 am GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.03% to 1.1207 compared with the opening at 1.1204, after reaching a high of 1.1209, while reaching a low of 1.1201.   

The markets are currently waiting for the euro zone's largest economy to release the seasonally adjusted preliminary reading of Q1 GDP, which may reflect a 0.4% expansion versus stability at zero levels in the fourth quarter, while the seasonally adjusted annualized reading of the same indicator may show a slowdown Growth to 0.7% compared to 0.9% in the previous quarter's previous reading.

This comes before we see the second largest economy of the euro area France revealed the final reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the stability of growth of 0.2%, unchanged from the previous preliminary reading for the month of March and against 0.8% in the previous reading for the month of February, Before the initial reading of the Eurozone Employment Change Index, which could show slowing growth to 0.2% vs. 0.3% in the fourth quarter.   

This comes in conjunction with the release of the seasonally adjusted preliminary reading of the Q1 GDP for the first quarter of the eurozone as a whole, which may reflect a stable growth of 0.4%, unchanged from the previous Q4 reading. Also remained unchanged from the previous year's fourth quarter reading.   

On the other hand, we have followed Tuesday reported Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salveni that the Italian government may increase the budget deficit to 3% and the general government debt to between 130% to 140% of the GDP of his country to support the conditions of the labor market, Who has re-expressed concern over renewed tensions over the Italian government's budget between the EU and the Italian government and the European Commission's failure to approve them. 

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal the reading of retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect slowing growth to 0.2% from 1.6% in March. The core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown in growth to 0.7% from 1.2% in March.   

This comes in conjunction with the release of the New York Industrial Index, which may reflect the contraction of the breadth to 8.2 against 10.1 last April, and before we also see the largest industrial country in the world published the Industrial Production Index, which may show stability at zero levels Up from 0.1% in March, while the Energy Use Index may show slowing growth to 78.7% from 78.8% in March.   

To Federal Reserve Vice Governor Randall Quarles' testimony to the Senate Banking Committee's oversight and regulation before we see the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a widening to 64 versus 63 in April, The reading of wholesale inventories, which may show stability at zero levels, versus 0.3% in February. 

The EUR / USD pair has moved slightly lower to keep the pair close to the 1.1180 level, adding to expectations that the bearishness will continue over the short and short term, noting that Stochastic is providing a negative cross that supports the breach of the mentioned level to confirm the trend towards 1.1100 then 1.1000.   

Therefore, we will maintain our bearish outlook on condition that the price remains steady below 1.1250.   

The trading range for today is expected among the key support at 1.1120 and resistance at 1.1280   

The general trend for today is bearish 

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