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July 2019

EUR analysis 11.07.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its third session retreat since June 19 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday by Eurozone economies and the US economy, which includes disclosure The minutes of the ECB meeting and the Eurogroup meetings in Brussels, as well as the second half of the Fed's midterm testimony to the US Treasury.

At 04:47 GMT, the EUR / USD pair rose 0.22% to 1.1276, compared to the opening at 1.1251, the pair's low during the session, while the pair reached a high of 1.1281.

The markets are waiting for the euro zone's largest economy to release the final CPI reading, which could reflect a stable 0.3% growth, unchanged from the June preliminary reading and 0.2% in May before reading Of the same index for France, the region's second largest economy, which could reflect growth stability at 0.2% versus 0.1% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the meetings of the Eurogroup, attended by the President of the Euro Group, the Ministers of Finance of the member countries of the euro area, Commissioner of Economic and Monetary Affairs, as well as the Governor of the European Central Bank, which discuss many financial issues such as mechanisms to support the euro and government funding, The ECB's monetary policy held on the sixth of last month.

ECB monetary policy makers have endorsed the meeting to keep interest rates at current zero levels and stabilize the marginal lending rate at 0.25% while maintaining a negative interest rate of -0.40%. ECB President Mario Draghi said at the press conference that Held after the meeting at that time, that the European Central Bank is ready to cut interest rates to promote economic growth in the region.

Draghi also said that the ECB is ready to adopt a new monetary stimulus in the purchase of bonds to support economic growth in the euro area, adding that these actions come at a time of increasing uncertainty about trade disputes and their effects on the global economy, adding that the European Central Is ready to use all means and instruments available to it to drive economic growth and revive exports and European industry.

On the other hand, the markets are currently looking for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect zero-point stability versus 0.1% growth in May, while the core reading of the same index may show growth accelerating to 0.2% versus 0.1%. The annualized reading of the index may show a slowdown in growth to 1.6% from 1.8%, and the annual reading of the core may reflect growth stability of 2.0%.

This comes in conjunction with the publication of the requests for aid for the week ending on the sixth of this month, which may reflect a decline of 1 thousand applications to 220 thousand, and may indicate requests for continuing assistance for the week ending on June 29 decrease by 4 thousand applications to 1,682 thousand, To the second half of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee.

We would like to point out that Powell made his first half-yearly testimony to Congress on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, before the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on June 18-19, During which monetary policy makers at the Federal Reserve raised interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair opens today's trading positively to return to the bullish channel that appears in the picture, stopping the negative scenario suggested in our recent reports and pushing the price back to retrace the upside move on its way to gains starting at 1.1350 and extending to 1.1443.

Therefore, the bullish trend will be likely for today unless the 1.1265 level is broken and the daily closing below it.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1200 and 1.1360 support.

The general trend for today is bullish.

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