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EUR Analysis 09.10.2019

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow and bullish range during the Asian session to witness the fifth session rebound in seven sessions from the lowest since May 12, 2017 against the US dollar on the eve of the meetings of the euro group in Brussels and developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the largest US economy in the world which includes Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech in Kansas City.

At 04:55 am GMT the EURUSD rose 0.05% to 1.0963 levels from the opening at 1.0957 after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 1.0966, while the lowest level at 1.0952.

Markets are looking forward to the proceedings of the Eurogroup meetings, which are attended by the finance ministers of the eurozone member states, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, as well as the Governor of the European Central Bank, which discusses many financial issues such as the mechanisms of supporting the euro and government financing. However, officials have been holding regular interviews with the media throughout the day.

On the other hand, yesterday we followed the call of the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, Britain to say what it wants about its exit from the European Union, singing through the tension "is not important to win a foolish process to exchange accusations, but important future of Europe and the United Kingdom as well as the security and interests of European people," adding that The British prime minister "Johnson does not want an agreement, nor to extend the deadline for negotiations or to retreat from the idea of ​​leaving the European Union, what exactly does he want ?!"

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking in talks with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said the chances of an agreement on an orderly exit from the European Union were diminishing, while Johnson said during the conversation yesterday that the proposals That includes abandoning the establishment of a physical border on the island of Ireland with Britain would be acceptable offers by his government.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy for the release of the employment and employment turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.35 million versus 7.22 million in July, following hours of the US labor market data released last month that showed Friday the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since December 1969 to 3.5% compared to the previous reading and expectations of 3.7%.

In the same vein, we also followed last weekend's median hourly earnings steady at zero versus 0.4% growth in August, worse than expectations of 0.3%, while the non-farm payrolls showed a slowdown. The pace of job creation was 136k jobs compared to 168k jobs added in August, also worse than expectations for 145k jobs added.

Markets are also looking to reveal the final wholesale inventories figure, which could show growth at 0.4%, unchanged from the initial reading for August and 0.2% in July, before we see Fed Governor Jerome Powell and the committee member. Federal Open Market and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George at a panel discussion at the Federal Reserve listens.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes were released on September 17-18, in which the Federal Funds rate was cut for the second time in a row by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2.00%. It was in line with expectations, with the Commission's expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future interest rates for the next three years revealed.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading today with a bullish bias to test SMA 50, as the price is affected by the positive stochastic and may test the resistance of the descending channel before returning to the downside again.

In general, we continue to favor the main bearish direction unless 1.1020 is breached and hold above it, noting that our main target is at 1.0857.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0860 support and 1.1040 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Overall bearish.


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