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Gold Analysis 15.05.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping into the Asian session to see their second straight session rebound since April 11, shrugging off the decline in the dollar index, resuming its bounce from its highest since May 16, 2017 according to Of the inverse relationship between them after the developments and economic data that followed the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals globally and on the brink of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.   

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.09% to currently trade at $ 1,296.30 per ounce, showing a five-week rally from the top of $ 1.298.00 per ounce. 0.01% to 97.51 compared to the opening at 97.53.   

We followed the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) survey for China on the annual reading of the Retail Sales Index, which showed a slowdown in growth to 7.2% from 8.7% in March, worse than expectations of 8.6%. From 8.5% in March, also worse than expected at 6.5%, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.0% from 5.2% in March. 

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal the reading of retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect slowing growth to 0.2% from 1.6% in March. The core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown in growth to 0.7% from 1.2% in March.   

This comes in conjunction with the release of the New York Industrial Index, which may reflect the contraction of the breadth to 8.2 against 10.1 last April, and before we also see the largest industrial country in the world published the Industrial Production Index, which may show stability at zero levels Up from 0.1% in March, while the Energy Use Index may show slowing growth to 78.7% from 78.8% in March. 

To Federal Reserve Vice Governor Randall Quarles' testimony to the Senate Banking Committee's oversight and regulation before we see the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a widening to 64 versus 63 in April, The reading of wholesale inventories, which may show stability at zero levels, versus 0.3% in February.   

On Tuesday, we followed US President Donald Trump's assertion that China's trade talks with China had not collapsed, and a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing and Washington agreed to continue trade negotiations following China's announcement on Monday of its intention to increase tariffs On its imports with US goods estimated at $ 60 billion from 10% to 25% by the beginning of June. 

China's decision at the beginning of the week highlighted the escalating trade war between the United States and the United States, which last week lifted tariffs on Chinese goods valued at $ 200 billion, from 10 percent to 25 percent, bringing China's customs duties to 25 percent, About $ 250 billion, amid a threat by the administration of US President Trump to impose customs duties 25% on other Chinese goods estimated at $ 325 billion soon. 

The price of gold is creeping down slightly to gradually move away from 1302.60, and the price remains limited between the pivotal levels of resistance and support at 1287.00, which keeps us neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next direction by breaching one of these levels.   

We will mention that breaching the mentioned resistance will push the price to confirm the resumption of the main bullish trend and achieve positive targets starting at 1326.00 and extending to 1346.73, while breaking the support will press the price to decline again and target levels of 1275.30 and 1253.20 in the near term.   

The trading range for today is among the support at 1285.00 and resistance at 1315.00 

  The expected general trend today: Depends on the levels mentioned in the report 

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