EURUSD analysis 14.09.2020

The single currency, the euro, fluctuated in a narrow, upward range during the Asian session, to witness its rebound for the fourth consecutive session from its lowest since August 12 against the US dollar on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Monday, from the economies of the euro area, amid the scarcity of economic data early This week by the US economy the largest in the world.

At 06:39 AM GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.04% to 1.1847 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1842, after the pair achieved its highest level during the session's trading at 1.1851, while it reached its lowest level at 1.1832, knowing that The pair started the session on a descending gap after ending last week’s trading at 1.1846 levels.

The markets are looking forward to the economies of the euro area as a whole to reveal the industrial sector data with the release of the seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index, which may reflect a slowdown in the pace of growth to 4.0% compared to 9.1% in June, while the annual reading of the same index may show the expansion of the decline to 18.3% compared to 12.3% in the previous annual reading for the month of June.

Other than that, we have just watched the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde delivered a brief speech at the hypothetical meeting of the Board of Governors of Central Banks and Arab Monetary Authorities, and in another context, we followed up at the end of last week, Eurogroup President Pascal Donohue expressed the importance of Britain’s commitment to the exit agreement concluded With the European Union, especially Ireland's status in the agreement, if it wants to reach a trade agreement.

It is noteworthy that the negotiations to reformulate future relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are in a state of stumbling in the wake of Britain's intention to bypass international law by violating the withdrawal agreement it reached with the Union, which provides for the demarcation of the borders between England and Northern Ireland, due to the latter's refusal to leave the European Union. The European customs, which Britain seeks to overcome, on the grounds that it will not allow the division of the United Kingdom.

On the other hand, markets are looking forward to tomorrow, Tuesday, the start of the FOMC meeting September 15-16 via satellite in Washington, in which it is expected that the short-term reference rates for the fifth meeting will remain at between zero and 0.25%. In conjunction with the disclosure of the committee members ’expectations for growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell tomorrow, Wednesday, precisely half an hour after the end of the meeting, to comment on the decisions of the committee that previously adopted many stimulus programs to support the economy in the face of the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and it is mentioned that Powell stated on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole meetings The Federal Reserve adopts a new inflation policy, targeting average inflation 2% above for some time.

Technical analysis

The EUR / USD pair continues to fluctuate at the broken support of the main ascending channel, and is still below it, which keeps our bearish expectations valid until now, which targets a visit to 1.1720 mainly.

We point out that breaking the target level will push the price to conduct more bearish correction in the short term, heading towards 1.1540 as a next corrective stop, while breaching 1.1855 and stabilizing above it represents the key to returning to the main bullish path and heading towards 1.2011 areas initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1750 support and 1.1920 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bearish.